Recently,there has been a slight difference in the fluctuation of methanol inventory in the upstream,midstream,and downstream of China,with port social inventory showing an increasing trend;Mainland manufacturers have been destocking for two consecutive weeks,but although the total inventory has decreased,the main production areas are expected to slightly increase;Moreover,traditional downstream demand is slightly weak,and the overall inventory of downstream raw materials in the main consumption area of northern Shandong is relatively high.Specifically,let’s take a look:
In terms of ports,as of July 25th,the total social inventory of methanol in the two major ports in East China and South China was 841200 tons,an increase of 57400 tons per week.During the period,although some of the main tank areas in Taicang had transshipment and loading operations,it provided a certain boost to the shipment in the main area;However,the weak follow-up of traditional demand has led to a slow digestion of inventory in cities such as Changzhou and Zhangjiagang,and low-priced warehouse receipts in some areas have also had a certain impact on the market.With the recovery of olefins in Zhapu,Zhejiang and the expected restart of olefins in Tianjin,we still need to be vigilant about the impact of the volume and pace of imported to ship terminal flows in the future;However,due to the recent impact of Typhoon”Gemei”,the phased closure of Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly restricted the arrival and unloading of ships.At present,the main port inventory in East China is 607000 tons,an increase of 159200 tons from the end of June;During this period,inventory in South China fluctuated and rose.As of July 25th,the warehouse had 234200 tons,an increase of 87300 tons from the end of June.
Mainland manufacturers:Since mid to late July,the inventory of domestic methanol manufacturers has fluctuated and decreased.Currently,the inventory days of domestic enterprises are around 5.11 days,a decrease of 0.26 days from mid July.From the perspective of supply and demand,since the end of June,the domestic methanol industry has been experiencing a continuous decline in production,although there has been a temporary rebound,the strength is limited;At present,the construction rate is 68.63%,a decrease of 8.71 percentage points from the end of June.The routine maintenance/unexpected shutdown and load reduction of the methanol plant are all affected.On the demand side,the traditional downstream weighted operating rate is 52.54%,during which formaldehyde,MTBE,DMF,and BDO operating rates have all decreased to varying degrees.The production of olefins has slightly increased to 64.67%recently,but this level is still relatively low compared to previous years,and it is still 1.33 percentage points lower than the end of June;In the future,with the gradual resumption of suspended projects such as Zhongtian Hechuang,Ningxia Baofeng Phase III,Yangmei Hengtong,and Inner Mongolia Jiutai,the industry’s production will further increase,and efforts will be closely focused on the external procurement of raw materials for some projects.
In terms of downstream inventory:The current high level of downstream raw material inventory for methanol in Lubei,coupled with slightly weaker demand,has greatly suppressed the actual buying enthusiasm of end-users.This Friday,the downstream receiving price in northern Shandong was 2380 yuan/ton,an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period.However,the overall purchasing volume was average,and some enterprises maintained their procurement suspension measures.