In a new report, DNV GL, a Norwegian energy consultancy, said global energy demand is likely to peak in 2019 and carbon dioxide emissions may also peak.
World energy demand will actually decline over the next 30 years and will be at the level of 2018 by 2050, the consultancy said. The authors of the report, Sverre Alvik and mark Irvine, wrote that this may be due to the persistent effects of the coronavirus pandemic and a significant improvement in energy intensity.
“The continued impact of the epidemic will drive the world economy out of steam for many years, with world GDP falling by 9% in 2050 compared with before the outbreak,” the advisers said. However, even if growth slows, the world economy will still be twice as large by the middle of the century as it is today. However, energy demand will not grow. ”
In general, the impact of these trends on oil will be negative, and natural gas will replace oil as the most used energy in the next decade. In addition, investors may start to pay more attention to renewable energy due to its low operating costs and fast turnaround time. DNV GL said spending on renewable energy will recover faster than on oil and gas.
The good news is that carbon emissions may have peaked in 2019. The bad news is that further reductions in emissions will not be enough to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement.
Alvik and Irvine wrote: “even if the emission peak is over, energy demand will remain stable until 2050, but our projected rate of energy transformation is still far from enough to achieve Paris’ goal of global warming much lower than 2 degrees Celsius before the industrial revolution. To achieve the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, from now on, we need to repeat every year the decline we experienced in 2020. “