The soaring price of high melting fiber material is not only a market concept determined by the supply-demand relationship, but also a psychological price around the happiness index. How much can it fall depends on the social tolerance and adaptability of the big oil country. In short, it is the tolerance of the people to accept the reduction of the quality of life. The IMF has estimated that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal balance depends on the high oil price of more than $100, with a conservative estimate of around $60. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has publicly said that the cost of exploitation is only a few dollars, which means unlimited price reduction. Saudi Arabia has been tightening its spending in every oil war, and its people have gradually adapted to the increasing cost of living and the declining quality of life. In the same way, Russia and other traditional oil producing countries are also gradually adapting to the tough times.
In the era of economic prosperity, the decline of oil income leads to the regression of living standards, which will undoubtedly shake the social stability and even the legitimacy of political power. However, due to the global crisis, all countries are tightening their belts and struggling to survive. Therefore, without oil, the probability of revolution will be greatly reduced, which will lay the psychological expectation and social foundation for the oil price to continue to decline to $10 or even return to zero. It can be seen that low oil price is not unbearable for a long time, and shale gas is becoming more and more difficult to survive.