Goldman Sachs said the potential recovery of Iran’s exports would not be an “external” shock to the oil market, and that it is expected that Iran’s crude oil exports will not fully recover until the summer of 2022, as U.S. and Iranian officials began indirect negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement in Vienna on Tuesday.
“As OPEC + now appears to be trying to end the production reduction agreement, concerns about supply may shift to Iran’s possible re-entry into the jcpoa agreement,” Goldman said in a report on MondayGoldman said the road to an agreement could be months away, adding that other OPEC + producers would adapt to the potential growth in Iranian production.
According to the report, normalization of Iran’s exports before the end of 2021 will reduce Goldman Sachs’ forecast of $75 per barrel of Brent crude oil price in 2021 and 2022 by $5, and if the agreement is not finalized by 2022, it may generate upward risk of more than $10.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors sought cheap deals as increased OPEC + production and strong economic data from the US and China boosted recovery prospects.
The organization of petroleum exporting countries, Russia and its allies (OPEC +), agreed on Thursday to gradually relax their oil production reduction plans from May.
Goldman Sachs said it expected a significant pick-up in oil demand this summer, even though it expected OPEC + crude oil production to increase by another 2 million barrels a day after July.