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As the epidemic continues to spread, gasoline demand in parts of the United States appears to be weakening. The States most affected by the surge are also some of the largest oil consumers, with tens of millions of drivers. Gasoline consumption continued to rise slightly in most parts of the United States.
In the week ending June 19, U.S. gasoline demand rebounded to 8.6 million barrels a day, up from the low of 5 million barrels a day in early April. But by the end of June, demand had fallen slightly. On Wednesday, the EIA report said demand rose again, although the positive impact of the report was offset by an increase in crude oil inventories. At present, the daily gasoline demand in the United States is still about 1 million barrels lower than last year.
In the rest of the world, the economy continues to rebound. Industrial activity in Germany accelerated in June, with the strict blockade of the previous months significantly reducing the number of infections per day, and some economies have basically reopened.
But many parts of the United States are trying to return to “normality” without really controlling the virus. “It’s too early to be optimistic about the total number of cases in the United States, especially in Texas and Florida, which yesterday exceeded 3 million,” JBC energy wrote in a report on Tuesday
The epidemic continues to spread in India and Brazil, as well as in other parts of the world, adding: “there are about 4.5 million confirmed cases worldwide, and there is no sign of slowing down, and our demand for energy products, especially gasoline, is expected to face increasing downward risks.”
A day earlier, the energy company lowered its forecast for U.S. gasoline demand, saying the recovery was “increasingly questionable.”. “We expect the decline in demand to increase slowly at the end of July, down 350000 B / D from previous base expectations,” JBC said
Standard Chartered said the current crude oil price “contains a lot of optimism.”. To be sure, the sharp decline in oil production is straining the market. The supply and demand balance of the market is no longer 100 million barrels / day, but “balanced” at a level of 10% less. In fact, the average daily demand in July may be around 89 million barrels, while the supply is only 88 million barrels. According to rystad energy, the oil market has now reached a new “low level equilibrium”.
But even if the current production of the oil market is less than the demand, there is still a large backlog of stocks, and the virus may cause the market to fall into a downturn again. “We believe that it will take a long time for the economy to normalize, and that the current decline in demand data and a further reduction in demand forecasts will make the process even longer,” Standard Chartered Analysts wrote in a report
The bank added that the excess inventory will continue until 2022, but it really depends on whether OPEC + will continue to cut production.
The EIA released its latest short-term energy outlook and raised its expectations for gasoline demand. The agency now expects gasoline consumption in 2020 to be 2.1 million barrels per day less than in 2019, up slightly from the 2.3 million barrels per day decrease expected in June. But this optimistic outlook is at risk if the US falls into another downturn.
””If crude oil inventories continue to increase now and restrictions are relaxed, traders are worried about what demand will be if there is a serious blockade again, after all, oil inventories are at a very high level,” Louise Dickson, oil market analyst at rystad energy, said in a statement