EIA has raised expectations for the growth rate of crude oil demand.Looking ahead to 2024,commodity trading service provider Jin Lianchuang believes that from the trend of oil prices,the international crude oil market may re evaluate the supply and demand fundamentals in 2024.With the increase in crude oil supply from non OPEC countries,crude oil prices may fall.
Jin Lianchuang stated that in terms of supply,the global crude oil supply will continue to shrink in 2024,mainly due to the OPEC+policy of reducing crude oil production until the end of 2024.However,additional production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia may change,and the intensity of production cuts may be reduced.In terms of demand,boosted by the gradual stabilization of the global economic situation,there is room for sustained amplification of global crude oil demand in 2024.As a basic energy source,crude oil will also drive an increase in demand for crude oil as the economy recovers.
“Although OPEC+has reached a new agreement to reduce crude oil production,African oil producing countries have refused to continue reducing production.Over time,Saudi Arabia and Russia’s additional production reduction plans have also been adjusted,resulting in a significant reduction in overall production intensity.”Jin Lianchuang crude oil analyst Xi Jiarui analyzed.
The reporter also noticed that the supply of non OPEC+crude oil is increasing,mainly concentrated in North America,Central and South America,Europe,and Eurasia.The Middle East is mainly stable,and the supply of crude oil in Asia and Africa is expected to decrease.
According to data from S&P Global Commodities,global daily oil demand grew strongly by 1.9 million barrels in 2023,with non OPEC+oil producing countries seeing an increase of 2.5 million barrels in daily supply,mainly due to historically high production in the United States,Brazil,and Guyana.
“In 2024,the fundamentals of the global crude oil market will gradually transition towards’oversupply’.”Xi Jiarui,a crude oil analyst at Jinlian Chuang,believes that although the OPEC+crude oil production reduction policy is still ongoing,the execution of the reduction may not perform well due to significant disagreements within the production reduction alliance.In addition,the outlook for global crude oil demand is not optimistic,and economic pressure from the United States and Europe will suppress the rebound in crude oil demand.